Forecasting Public Transport Mode Choice Behavior of Commuters in Bahrain Using Logit and Classification Tree Models: a Comparative Study

Abstract

Abstract : Transportation plays a key role in facilitating trade and social interactions worldwide. However, transportation systems in most countries, including Bahrain, face various serious challenges. This has made it essential to have a thorough comprehension of travel demands and driver’s characteristics for the development of engineering solutions that can facilitate the advancement of these transportation systems. This thesis aims to explore the influential factors concerning travel mode choice in Bahrain and utilize mode choice models to forecast the probable utilities of various future public transport modes. The study utilizes diverse 3864 data records extracted from previous surveys as well as a recent one conducted within this research. Subsequently, using Minitab software, two types of mode choice models were built, namely the logit model and the classification tree model, with the model building process conducted in two phases. The first phase concentrated on modeling the current transportation system considering the modes of transportation currently available (Car and Bus), while phase 2 focused on modelling the future transportation system, taking into account potential public transport modes (Car, Public Bus, Metro, and Tram). The analysis of the data identified trip cost as the top predictor, moreover, direct and quick travel, accessibility, and convenience were also found to significantly influence the choice of travel mode in Bahrain. Additionally, the findings indicate that metro is the preferred choice for future public transport, with a strong preference observed for a combination of metro and tram. The research also suggests, in terms of model performance, that the logit model demonstrated higher accuracy compared to the classification tree when modelling binary responses. However, when it comes to capturing more complex patterns, as in the second phase, the classification tree outperforms the multinomial logit model. Overall, the thesis provides valuable insights into mode choice in Bahrain and highlights the important factors influencing commuting decisions. The results obtained can support the development of an efficient public transportation system that would satisfy the needs and preferences of commuters in Bahrain and ultimately lead to a sustainable and accessible transportation infrastructure in the country.