Data-Driven Analysis of Renewable Energy Policy Impact on Bahrain's Energy Market
| Author | Abomesalam, Wael Mohamed Attia Mohamed | |
|---|---|---|
| metadata.dc.contributor.department | "University of Bahrain, College of Business Administration, Department of Management and Marketing | |
| metadata.dc.date.accessioned | 2026-09-20T15:54:10Z | |
| Publication date | 2025 | |
| Degree level | Doctoral | |
| Abstract | Abstract : Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption is crucial for sustainable energy transitions but faces significant barriers in subsidized energy markets such as Bahrain. This doctoral research investigates policy pathways to optimize residential solar PV uptake by evaluating (1) financial incentives (VAT reduction, innovative loans) within the current subsidy system and (2) electricity subsidy reform coupled with compensatory cash transfer (CT) mechanisms (universal, targeted, and a novel tiered design). This study addresses the fundamental challenge of stimulating solar PV adoption in heavily subsidized electricity markets. An empirically grounded Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulated heterogeneous Bahraini household adoption decisions (2025–2050), integrating economic rationality, behavioral factors (Diffusion of Innovation, Behavioral Economics), and social network influences (Social Capital Theory). The model assessed the policy impacts on solar PV diffusion, household economics, distributional equity, fiscal balance, and environmental benefits Key findings reveal that while combined financial incentives significantly boost solar PV adoption (to ~45.6%) over the baseline (~24%), an adoption ceiling persists due to existing subsidies. Subsidy reform paired with CTs proved more potent for higher adoption (71–73%) and improved solar PV financial viability (payback periods of 1.58–1.81 years). However, subsidy removal alone can lead to inequitable adoption. The novel Tiered CT design, achieving 70.99% adoption, delivered the most equitable adoption distribution across income quintiles by utilizing a rational "coupled" design that allocates compensation in proportion to household subsidy loss This study contributes by applying ABM to policy design in a subsidized GCC context, comparing distinct policy paradigms, and evaluating innovative CT. This underscores the necessity of pairing subsidy reforms with robust equitable compensation. Tiered CT has emerged as a promising policy for Bahrain to balance adoption, equity, and fiscal responsibility. This study offers evidence-based insights for Bahrain and other similar nations, aiming to accelerate sustainable energy transitions | |
| metadata.dc.identifier.other | Drupal node 4653 | |
| metadata.dc.identifier.other | https://digitalrepository.uob.edu.bh/en/dar/data-driven-analysis-renewable-energy-policy-impact-bahrains-energy-market | |
| metadata.dc.identifier.uri | http://165.227.56.122/handle/123456789/7549 | |
| Language | en | |
| Link | https://digitalrepository.uob.edu.bh/en/_flysystem/fedora/2026-02/002417_data-driven_analysis_of_renewable_energy_policy_impact_on_bahrains_energy_market.pdf | |
| Title | Data-Driven Analysis of Renewable Energy Policy Impact on Bahrain's Energy Market | |
| Type | Doctoral Dissertation | |
| College | College of Business Administration | |
| Department | Management and Marketing |
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