Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Coronavirus Transmission and Control in the Kingdom of Bahrain

Abstract

Abstract : The COVID-19 pandemic has been spread globally, where all countries have taken precautionary measures to reduce its spread. Therefore, we are motivated to introduce some suggested solutions that may reduce the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, the main aim of this dissertation is to propose a mathematical model for controlling COVID-19 transmission in the kingdom of Bahrain. The effect of precautionary measures adopted by Bahrain to limit the spread of the coronavirus during 2020 and 2021 is investigated. Statistical data and precautionary measures are obtained from the Ministry of Health (MOH) in the Kingdom of Bahrain website. The analysis of these data showed that, during both years, the number of detected infected cases was lower than expected, except for some periods when the infection number increased. The lockdown process and application of light signal system were the top precautionary measures that reduced the number of discovered infected people. On the other hand, reducing the quarantine of the arrivals, contacts, and cancelling the PCR tests, increase the risk of infection. In this study, a SUQCR model for the disease progression in Bahrain is introduced. A local equilibrium state is defined, and the conditions of its existence are established. Moreover, the reproduction number Ro by the next-generation approach is calculated. Model parameters are used as controllers to minimize the number of infected individuals and maximize the recovered ones. According to the SUQCR model, the basic reproduction number for Bahrain is Ro